#DMG MARKETING FULL#
Lock in profit on the new crop that has to move at harvest at today’s prices and rallies are why we have full bins at home. Both Sunflowers and milo has rallied significantly during each of the last two years but that again tells a person to approach marketing two ways. Bets are 50:50 right now on if they stay in the milo market or fade.
#DMG MARKETING DRIVER#
China has been the milo driver the last two years but if they continue to hiccup that could fall off. Current new crop milo bids of -.70 cents under Chicago corn futures are in the upper end of the new crop range. Click here for a milo basis chart showing old and new crop DMG milo basis at Ft Pierre from 2011 to 2015. Ton per acre sunflowers at today’s prices still pencil a small profit and need considered. Sunflowers look very good across all of our trade area and if long term weather forecasts are right, then even late flowers have a chance.
Full bins at home are there for the rallies. Wheat futures show carries of 10 – 15+ cents per month and the potential for good corn and milo exports also holds hope. For what has to go town off the combine, be smart about storage costs, leave futures open, sell based on dollars per acre revenue vs. Approach marketing in two ways this year. We exist to guide clients through the challenges of the digital advertising medium. Marketing opportunities look like they will be limited for the rest of the crop year but it is important that they be taken advantage of as they surface. Right now it looks like a slow developing play. If ever there was a year that we have to prove it to get it, this could be one of those years. If we can hold here, catch an ever so small bounce and let the negative news run its course, then we can begin the long slow grind back to higher levels. Severe winter weather could slow shipments but with the bigger wheat and corn supply would need to see problems over all the US and beyond.
The only weather left that would help 2015 crop prices is for a big freeze that trashes the corn crop but long term forecasts don’t predict it and we really don’t want that to happen.
The market needs the reverse of recent China news - a bullish surprise of weather or politics. stocks at this point is to sell (export) more overseas which is not easy given the US dollar value. The world easily has enough wheat to meet a demand that is not expected to grow significantly in the year ahead. The wheat market had been flirting with 2010 lows in wheat and actually dropped below those on weekly average price charts. Repetitive market news get stale after a while and we need this Labor Day break to see if that happens with the ongoing headlines of big crops worldwide, a strong US dollar, neutral world weather and lagging wheat exports. China is on holiday so there was been no bad news from there since Wednesday. If the purpose of time off over a long weekend is to regroup then the markets need one.
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